Businesses Large And Small Fear Dwindling Inventories Will Lead To Empty Shelves Amid Tariff Uncertainty
It’s been 100 days of uncertainty for businesses across the country, due in large part to the unrelenting threat of tariffs on their ability to plan and keep costs affordable for customers.
Disconnect Between Policy and Reality
While administration officials claim that economic pain from tariffs will be minimal, the reality on the ground is much harsher. Time is running out for businesses large and small as tariffs increase costs, dwindle overseas inventory and throw a wrench into long-term business planning.
Many Main Street entrepreneurs rely heavily on imports from Asia and the Indo-Pacific. Small businesses lack the capital to absorb sudden price hikes or shipment cancellations. Because many operate on thin margins already, they can’t afford the unpredictable price increases as tariff policies shift day by day.
The Clock is Ticking for Businesses
This market volatility is making it increasingly difficult to plan for the future as costs fluctuate. For many companies, this uncertainty has led them to pause operations and scrap future projects amid panic.
Mike Roach, a co-owner of Paloma Clothing in Portland, Oregon, said, “This is the worst and most uncertain situation we’ve ever been in. This is way worse than anything else in terms of not knowing what to do and what the future is going to hold because of the uncertain factor.”
Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation (NRF) explained how future planning is in flux for retailers: “They’re making their holiday buying decisions now. It’s a challenge for folks to figure out how to properly order and price with all the uncertainty that’s out there on the tariffs.”
Tariff Hikes Lead to Slowed Imports With No Alternatives In Sight
With tariffs on Chinese imports soaring to 145%, many companies have been forced to halt new orders, evidenced by a sharp drop in goods arriving at U.S. ports. NRF expects U.S. imports to plunge by at least 20% in the second half of 2025.
In late April, Eugene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said “essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased,” and predicted that cargo arrivals would drop by 35% by early May.
Vulnerable Businesses Brace for Shortages
This disruption is expected to intensify in the coming weeks, with experts warning of empty shelves and price spikes as early as late May or June.
Small retailers and local businesses, especially those selling baby products, toys, lower cost footwear, apparel and household goods – products made primarily in China – are particularly vulnerable as they are expected to be the first impacted by tariff-induced shortages.
In tandem with large scale retailers, Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, remarked, “Starting in a couple of weeks, we are just going to start running out of stuff, and if the administration waits to resolve the problem until we have shortages and hoarding, that is just too late.”
Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo Global Management, warned, “The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession. U.S. consumers will within a few weeks see empty shelves in clothing stores, toy stores, hardware stores and retail drugstores, and higher prices of the goods that still are on the shelves.”
A Bleak Outlook Without Swift Action
Many businesses are already raising prices in response to tariffs, but supply chain complications are the latest hurdle they’re forced to navigate. Without immediate and decisive policy intervention, the consequences will ripple far beyond the factory floor or shipping port.
Everyday necessities – from diapers and shoes to tools and household goods – will become harder to find and more expensive to buy. For millions of consumers, this means higher costs at checkout.
What’s unfolding is not just a trade disruption. It’s an economic emergency that threatens to upend Main Street America, leaving consumers with fewer choices, higher prices and communities with empty storefronts.
With no relief in sight, time is running out for businesses.